4 Analysis of experience variances and operating assumption changes.


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Risk and Savings

International

For the year ended 31 December 2009

Experience variances
£m

Operating assumption changes
£m

Total
£m

Experience variances
£m

Operating assumption changes
£m

Total
£m

Persistency

(5)

(42)

(47)

(2)

(13)

(15)

Mortality/morbidity

(6)

114

108

13

26

39

Expenses

(19)

60

41

(7)

(12)

(19)

Other

76

24

100

13

13

 

46

156

202

17

1

18

Risk and Savings persistency operating assumption changes relate to the strengthening of lapse assumptions for individual protection and unit linked bond policies; partially offset by improved persistency for with-profits products.

Risk and Savings mortality assumption changes relates to favourable annuitant mortality experience in 2009 which has been reflected in the latest three year average experience, and favourable individual protection mortality.

Risk and Savings expense assumption changes primarily reflects the £76m impact of the cost reductions delivered in 2009; partially offset by the impact of assumed higher future investment expenses of £(29)m. Other smaller items have a net positive impact of £13m. Expense experience variances include the impact of redundancy costs as a result of the cost reduction programme of £(17)m and exceptional project expenses and other items of £(8)m; partially offset by the impact of lower maintenance expenses than assumed of £6m.

Risk and Savings other experience variances includes £44m reflecting a reassessment of future reserve releases as data is loaded onto the [BPA] system and £43m relating to one-off modelling improvements.

International mortality operating assumption changes primarily reflects improved claims ratios on group protection business in France, following positive experience in 2009.

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Risk and Savings

International

For the year ended 31 December 2008

Experience variances
£m

Operating assumption changes
£m

Total
£m

Experience variances
£m

Operating assumption changes
£m

Total
£m

Persistency

(12)

(114)

(126)

(5)

(2)

(7)

Mortality/morbidity

27

(49)

(22)

(12)

8

(4)

Expenses

(9)

35

26

1

(9)

(8)

Other

6

28

34

(18)

(12)

(30)

 

12

(100)

(88)

(34)

(15)

(49)

2008 Risk and Savings persistency operating assumption changes of £(114)m relate primarily to the strengthening of lapse assumptions for unit linked bond policies.

2008 Risk and Savings mortality assumption changes relate primarily to annuitant mortality where the assumption has been updated to reflect the latest three year average experience where lighter 2008 experience replaced heavier 2005 experience in the calculation.

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